Labor makes large gains over Coalition in lead up to same sex marriage poll results, two-party preferred YouGov-Fifty Acres poll shows

Labor has made large gains over the Coalition in the lead up to the same sex marriage poll results, which are due this Wednesday, according to the two-party preferred YouGov-Fifty Acres poll. 

  • Labor now have a four point lead, on 52% (up three), while the Coalition are on 48% (down three).
  • The primary voting intention has Labor on 34% (up one), the Coalition on 31% (down five), the Greens on 11% (up one), and One Nation on 11% (up two). Other parties are on 13% combined.

Despite the dramatic drop in support for the Coalition, the latest poll found little change in Australians’ opinions of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. 

  • 44% of those surveyed have a favourable view of Malcolm Turnbull - this is unchanged since the start of September.
  • 47% have an unfavourable view, down one.
  • This gives Turnbull a net favourability score of -3, slightly behind Bill Shorten who has a net favourability of -1.

Although most Australians want same sex marriage legalised straight away if there is a “Yes” result, “No” voters want MPs to vote with their conscience, signalling trouble ahead for Turnbull. 

  • 58% think that if there is a “Yes” result in the ballot, the government should pass a law “straight away”. A further 14% think they should pass a law but it doesn’t have to be straight away, and just 18% think the government should ignore the results.
  • The majority of “No” voters (52%) think the government should ignore the results, and just a third (32%) think they should pass a law if there’s a “Yes” vote.
  • Australians are more divided on how MPs should vote if there’s a “Yes” result - 42% believe MPs who oppose same-sex marriage should vote with their consciences, while 46% think they should vote in line with the ballot results.
  • An overwhelming majority of those who oppose same-sex marriage, 79% or eight in 10, believe like-minded MPs should vote with their conscience, while just 12% think they should vote in-line with the results of the postal survey.

The poll also found most Australians think the government should do more to tackle tax avoidance and support a full parliamentary audit on dual citizenship. 

  • Nearly eight in 10 (78%) think the government should be doing more to tackle tax evasion, while 12% think they are doing enough.
  • Seven in 10 (70%) think they should be doing more to tackle tax avoidance while 19% think they are doing enough.
  • Over six in ten (63%) people think that legal tax avoidance is still unacceptable, compared to just 26% who think it is acceptable.
  • Interestingly, over a quarter of Australians (27%) say they would probably take part in a tax avoidance scheme if “there was little chance of the tax authorities discovering it”, while over half (55%) say they would not take part.
  • A majority of Australians (61%) think a full parliamentary audit on dual citizenship is a “good idea”, while just 16% think it’s a bad idea.

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Methodology Overview

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov. Total sample size was 1034 adults aged 18+ years. Fieldwork was undertaken between 9 th - 12 th November 2017. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Australian adults (aged 18+). The survey was carried out online.

This is the latest poll from YouGov, which has a proven record of accuracy in both US and UK politics. In the most recent UK election they were the first polling agency to correctly call the result, showing the country was heading for a hung parliament despite most other organisations showing a large lead for the Conservatives. All polling is subject to a margin of error so it is natural to see some variations from poll to poll.